The seizure number, and who it belongs to
A seizure is the adverse event almost everybody means when they ask this question, and it is the risk the FDA names third in its list for these devices. It has been counted twice at scale, by two different groups, using two different methods.
24 in 318,560
Seizures reported across five years of sessions at 174 labs and clinics
18 in 586,656
Seizures reported in 25,526 patients, Clinical TMS Society survey
62%
Share of seizures that happened on someone's first exposure to TMS
Those work out to 0.08 seizures per 1,000 sessions in the first study and 0.31 per 10,000 sessions in the second. The second also reports it per person, which is closer to the question you are actually asking: 0.71 seizures per 1,000 patients treated.
Both are voluntary surveys rather than registries, and both say so. The first drew 174 responses from a possible population in the thousands, and its authors call their own data "only semi-quantitative"; 63% of the sites estimated their session counts rather than counting them. The second surveyed the membership of the Clinical TMS Society and got roughly a 27% response, and could not independently verify the seizures reported to it. They agree with each other to within about a factor of three, which for two self-report surveys is reassuring, and is still not the same thing as a registry.
One number is worth tracing, because you will see it everywhere. Clinic pages routinely give the risk as fewer than 1 in 30,000 treatments and attribute it to the international safety guidelines. It does not appear in those guidelines. It comes from the NeuroStar device labeling, which states it without a denominator or a published derivation. The guidelines’ own summary, in their 2021 update, is that the risk "is about <0.03%" — three in ten thousand, an order of magnitude higher than the label figure, and also given without a denominator. Three numbers, one question, and the gap between them is not resolved anywhere.
Fainting is far more common than a seizure and looks like one from the outside. About 17% of the sites surveyed in 2019 had seen at least one patient faint, and the 2021 guidelines specifically ask clinicians to tell a seizure apart from convulsive syncope. One manufacturer's post-market monitoring counts the two together, which is worth knowing before comparing its figures with anyone else's.